By Anu Shoremekun
Let me start by joining others in congratulating the former Vice-President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar on his emergence as the flag bearer of the main opposition party, the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) ahead of the 2023 presidential election. Having said this, it is pertinent to state that with the conclusion of the PDP presidential primaries, the next focus for many political observers is who emerges as the candidate of the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC).
Though there are other political parties, the attention of many seems to be on the two major political parties as it would be a major surprise and a daunting task for any other political party to win the 2023 presidential election aside the APC and PDP. Please note, anything they say is possible in politics, including surprises.
For APC, the emergence of Atiku would be an integral consideration in their political calculation as they go to their presidential primaries in a couple of days. Therefore, the party would at its presidential primaries ensure that only an aspirant that can challenge and beat PDP’s candidate in next year’s presidential election emerges as its flag bearer.
Which of the APC aspirant is the best choice for the party? The best choice for APC must be someone from the Southern region. One of the immediate reactions to the victory of Atiku at the primaries was the fact that his victory appears to be an attempt to push for power to remain in the North after a two term reign of the current president who is from the North. Critics of this move believe it is against the unwritten principle of power rotation between the North and South. It is pertinent to state that rotational presidency is not constitutional but has remained one of the principle that has being part of our politics since the return to democracy in 1999.
Furthermore on why APC should avoid fielding a Northern candidate, it must be stated that none of the northern aspirants in the APC has the political clout of the PDP candidate in the North. Aside President Muhammed Buhari who has an overwhelming popularity in the North, the next to him would be the likes of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and Alhaji Rabiu Musa Kwankwoso. Therefore, none of the current aspirants for the presidential ticket in the APC today can boast of such popularity in the region.
Additionally, none of the Northern APC aspirant has the kind of support Atiku has in the South. Therefore, if any of the northern aspirants of the APC picks the ticket at their presidential primaries, the person would have difficulty beating the PDP candidate in the South and this may scuttle the chances of the APC retaining the presidency in 2023.
The Best choice for APC must be an aspirant that would not make the party field neither a Christian/ Christian nor Muslim/Muslim ticket. There is no doubt that religion and ethnicity are inextricably linked to politics in Nigeria. Therefore, any attempt to have both the Presidential and Vice-Presidential Candidate belong to the same religious faith would amount to a grave political miscalculation that could dent the chances of any party in the 2023 presidential election. Though some may argue that a single religion ticket won the presidential election in 1993, the point to note is that the political climate in 2023 cannot be compared to what was obtainable in 1993. Recent happenings in our country has entrenched the consideration of religion in our politics and policy. In fact, one of the religious groups has come out to express their rejection of any attempt to have a single religion ticket ahead of the 2023 presidential election. Of course, no right thinking party would want to toil with such threat.
Lastly, the APC must present a candidate that has national appeal. Even the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria expects national spread in the votes of anyone who must become the President of the country. Therefore, every party must ensure that they have a candidate who has a goodwill that can attract votes from the six geo-political zones of the country.
Who then is the best choice for the APC? By my estimation, two aspirants out of all the APC aspirants has the credentials to give Atiku a good run. Co-incidentally these two aspirants are from the same geopolitical zone and have their roots in the same political family, while one is regarded as a god father, the other is or was a godson. However, one of the two aspirants appears to be favoured by the criteria that seeks to eschew a single religion ticket. This aspirant was a beneficiary of similar criteria in 2014 ahead of the 2015 presidential election of the APC. The favoured aspirant has tremendous goodwill spread across the six geo-political zones of the country in addition to a robust cognate experience at the highest level of the country.
Albeit, the APC must know that the favoured candidate can only win the presidential election for the party with the political support of the big wigs of the party, especially his two bosses at different times.
Best wishes to the APC in their presidential primary election.
▪︎ Shoremekun is a political analyst based in Abuja and can be reached via WhatsApp on 07052549523_ .